Every year leading up to the Super Bowl, S&P Global Market Intelligence uses the S&P Capital IQ database to take a light-hearted look at Super Bowl history, winners and losers and stock market returns.
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Stock Market Stats For Super Bowl LVI
Notes about the game:
- LET’S GO OFFENSE: Over the past 55 years the median combined final score of each game has been 46 points. When the teams in the Super Bowl combine to score at least 46 points, the stock market returns 15.9% on average (based on 29 years). If the final combined score is under 46, the average market return is just 8.2%.
- WHEN IN ROME: Roman numerals began to be used with Super Bowl V held in 1971. This year’s game is designated LVI and when the game is designated with an even number the average market return in the subsequent years is 8.2% versus 16.2% for games designated with an odd number.
- WHAT ARE THE ODDS: When the favored team wins the market responses with an average return of 13.7% versus 9.9% when the underdog pulls off the upset. No matter who wins the market is happiest when the game goes “over” as the market responds with an average return of 15.9%
- GO WEST YOUNG MAN: Not so good advice when it comes to the Super Bowl. When games are played west of the Mississippi River the average market return in the subsequent years is 9.0% versus a more robust 14.3% when games played east of the Mississippi River.
- NO PLACE LIKE HOME: When the designated home team wins the average market return in the subsequent years is 16.9% versus only 8.9% when the road team wins. Interestingly this year while the Cincinnati Bengals will have the home team designation the Los Angeles Rams will likely have true home field advantage while playing at home at SoFi Stadium.
- THE GOLDEN STATE: It may well be golden for investors as the average returns in subsequent years after games have been played in California is 15.8% trailing only Florida of any of the 10 states that the game has been played in.
- DOME MIGHT CAST SHADOW ON OUTLOOK: While technically not a dome, this year’s game will be played under a canopy at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. Nineteen previous Super Bowls were played under a dome or with the retractable roof closed and the average market return was 7.3% while 36 Super Bowl games have been played at an open-air stadium or with the retractable roof open and the average S&P 500 return for those years is 14.9%.
- RETURNING CHAMPS ARE A WIN FOR S&P 500: The Los Angeles Rams are a past winner of the Super Bowl. When a former champion returns and wins the Super Bowl, the average market return is 14.3%.
Notes about each league:
National Football Conference (NFC) versus American Football Conference (AFC)
- The market performs better on average after an NFC win returning on average 13.8% versus 10.7% after an AFC win.
- In this year’s game the AFC is considered the home team and when the designated home team wins the average market return in the subsequent years is 16.9% versus 8.9% after a road team win.
- Both the best annual return (37.6% in 1995) and the worst return (-37.0 in 2008) occurred after an NFC victory.
- 4 of the top 5 highest scoring Super Bowls were won by the NFC while 8 of the top 10 lowest scoring games were won by the AFC.
- While the NFC enjoys a better record during games played outdoors (12-7) the market prefers wins by the AFC as the market averages a 12.2% return after those AFC victories in games played indoors.
Note about each team:
The Cincinnati Bengals (AFC) are 0-2 in their previous Super Bowls appearances.
- The market responds well when the Bengals are in the big game with stock market returns averaging 26.6% after their losses in Super Bowls XVI and XXIII.
The Los Angeles/St. Louis Rams (NFC) are 1-3 in their previous Super Bowl appearances
- The market seems to like the Rams out west as after the Rams participated in two Super Bowls when located in Los Angeles the market was up an average of 32.0% while the average market return was -15.6% after their two Super Bowl appearances while located in St. Louis.
Disclaimer: This data is not intended to represent a fundamental analysis of market trends or historical data and in no way is intended to be the basis for any investment decisions whatsoever. This also does not represent an endorsement of any specific NFL team by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
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