The macroeconomic data, monthly auto sales, and global trends are the major events that would dictate trends in the equity market this week, analysts said.
“This week, our Q2 GDP numbers and monthly auto sales numbers will be key domestic factors. On the global front, the market will keep an eye on data from the US and any further movement of the dollar index and US bond yields. Apart from this, news flow from China will continue to cause some volatility,” said Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd.
Last week, the bulls dominated the Indian stock market, supported by favourable triggers like buying by Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) and a drop in crude prices.
Last week, the 30-share BSE benchmark Sensex rallied 630.16 points or 1%. On Friday, the Sensex settled at 62,293.64 — its record closing high. The NSE Nifty too ended at its lifetime peak of 18,512.75.
Ajit Mishra, VP – of Technical Research, Religare Broking Ltd, said this week that participants will be focusing on key macroeconomic data — GDP numbers and manufacturing PMI — for cues.
“Besides, with the beginning of the new month, auto sales will also start pouring in from December 1. Apart from the domestic data set, the performance of the global indices especially the US will remain on the radar,” he added.
This week investors will be eyeing the US ISM manufacturing data and the monthly jobs report to assess how the economy is faring amid the aggressive Fed monetary tightening.
The India September quarter GDP data is due next week alongside the US prints.
“The Fed Chair’s speech, which is scheduled for this week, and the release of other significant macroeconomic data will influence the market’s future trajectory,” said Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services.
GDP data for the second quarter is scheduled to be announced on Wednesday, while Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector will be released on Thursday.
Over the last week, several rating agencies and banks have lowered India’s FY23 gross domestic product growth projections, citing headwinds from higher interest rates and slowing global trade.
Rating firm Crisil lowered its forecast for India’s real GDP growth to 7% for the current fiscal from 7.3% estimated previously.
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